Crypto Compass by BitcoinWalletSG #95

Hello Fam,

With the U.S. presidential election just 1 day away (at the time of writing), crypto markets are buzzing with speculation around how the results could impact price action, particularly for Bitcoin. A Trump victory, often viewed as pro-crypto due to his public support for digital assets and DeFi, could ignite bullish momentum, with Bitcoin potentially pushing past previous highs.

On the other hand, a Harris win, while also crypto-friendly, may signal a more regulatory-focused approach that could moderate immediate price jumps, leading to a steadier climb. As markets brace for heightened volatility, investors are closely watching for clues from swing states and the Fed’s upcoming decision, which could amplify any post-election price movement.

Trump's Prediction Market Odds Slip as Election Approaches

As the Presidential election nears, former President Donald Trump’s chances of victory are still leading on major prediction markets, yet his odds have dipped recently. Over the past week, prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket saw Trump’s lead reduce by 3.8% on average, with particularly steep drops on both platforms. On Polymarket, his odds fell from a July high of 71.5% to 59.1%, and Kalshi reports a decline from 65.2% to 55% since October. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining traction in Wisconsin and Michigan, swing states crucial for election outcomes. A notable French bettor, who recently wagered heavily on Trump’s win, attributed his investment to perceived polling underestimations rather than any political agenda.

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UBS Launches uMINT Tokenized Fund on Ethereum for Conservative Money Market Investments

UBS, the world’s largest private bank, has introduced uMINT, a tokenized investment fund on the Ethereum blockchain. Designed to provide access to high-quality, conservatively managed money market instruments, uMINT reflects the growing interest in tokenized assets. Ethereum remains the leading blockchain for real-world asset tokenization, with over $3 billion of tokenized assets, including substantial holdings in U.S. Treasury debt. The launch of uMINT positions UBS alongside other financial giants like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, which have similarly ventured into blockchain-based financial products.

Allegations of High Listing Fees Could Signal Shift from Centralized to Decentralized Exchanges

Recent allegations from crypto founders, including Tron’s Justin Sun and Fantom’s Andre Cronje, suggest major exchanges like Coinbase are charging hefty listing fees—reportedly up to $330 million. This revelation has sparked criticism in the crypto community, with concerns that high fees may discourage innovation and push projects toward decentralized exchanges (DEXs), where there is no gatekeeping. Industry experts predict a potential rise in DEX popularity, especially as recent data shows DEX trading volumes now account for 13.6% of spot market activity.

Happenings of the week

• Singapore Pushes for Commercialization of Tokenization

• Circle considers issuing stablecoin in Hong Kong

• JPMorgan maintains $196 price target for Coinbase despite Q3 shortfall

• Rekt Drinks sells out 222,456 cans during product launch

Bitcoin Volatility Surges as U.S. Election Uncertainty Looms

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, volatility across financial markets, including Bitcoin, has surged. Deribit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index reached a three-month high, reflecting market anxieties as polls show a tightly contested race between Trump and Harris. Betting markets, especially around swing states like Pennsylvania, are driving a risk premium on Bitcoin options, with BTC's seven-day implied volatility climbing to 74.4%. Although Bitcoin recently approached record highs, it has since dipped below $68,000 as election uncertainties grow.

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